Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming

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dc.contributor.authorSheridan, Jennifer A.
dc.contributor.authorCaruso, Nicholas M.
dc.contributor.authorApodaca, Joseph J.
dc.contributor.authorRissler, Leslie J.
dc.contributor.otherUniversity of Alabama Tuscaloosa
dc.contributor.otherYale NUS College
dc.contributor.otherNational Science Foundation (NSF)
dc.contributor.otherNSF - Directorate for Biological Sciences (BIO)
dc.contributor.otherNSF - Division of Environmental Biology (DEB)
dc.date.accessioned2023-10-02T15:16:59Z
dc.date.available2023-10-02T15:16:59Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.description.abstractChanges in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km(2), and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901-1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961-2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in space-for-time studies where measures of a species' traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population density, which may influence body size.en_US
dc.format.mediumelectronic
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.citationSheridan, J. A., Caruso, N. M., Apodaca, J. J., & Rissler, L. J. (2017). Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming. In Ecology and Evolution (Vol. 8, Issue 2, pp. 1316–1327). Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3636
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/ece3.3636
dc.identifier.urihttps://ir.ua.edu/handle/123456789/12576
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWiley
dc.rights.licenseAttribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectamphibians
dc.subjectBergman's rule
dc.subjectglobal warming
dc.subjectJames' rule
dc.subjectLithobates sylvaticus
dc.subjectphenology
dc.subjectBODY-SIZE
dc.subjectWOOD FROG
dc.subjectBREEDING PHENOLOGY
dc.subjectBERGMANNS RULE
dc.subjectTEMPERATURE
dc.subjectRESPONSES
dc.subjectSALAMANDERS
dc.subjectABUNDANCE
dc.subjectLIZARDS
dc.subjectDRIVEN
dc.subjectEcology
dc.subjectEvolutionary Biology
dc.titleShifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warmingen_US
dc.typeArticle
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