Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100

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dc.contributor.authorBell, A. R.
dc.contributor.authorWrathall, D. J.
dc.contributor.authorMueller, V
dc.contributor.authorChen, J.
dc.contributor.authorOppenheimer, M.
dc.contributor.authorHauer, M.
dc.contributor.authorAdams, H.
dc.contributor.authorKulp, S.
dc.contributor.authorClark, P. U.
dc.contributor.authorFussell, E.
dc.contributor.authorMagliocca, N.
dc.contributor.authorXiao, T.
dc.contributor.authorGilmore, E. A.
dc.contributor.authorAbel, K.
dc.contributor.authorCall, M.
dc.contributor.authorSlangen, A. B. A.
dc.contributor.otherBoston University
dc.contributor.otherNew York University
dc.contributor.otherOregon State University
dc.contributor.otherArizona State University
dc.contributor.otherArizona State University-Tempe
dc.contributor.otherCGIAR
dc.contributor.otherInternational Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
dc.contributor.otherOhio State University
dc.contributor.otherPrinceton University
dc.contributor.otherFlorida State University
dc.contributor.otherUniversity of London
dc.contributor.otherKing's College London
dc.contributor.otherUlster University
dc.contributor.otherBrown University
dc.contributor.otherUniversity of Alabama Tuscaloosa
dc.contributor.otherClark University
dc.contributor.otherUnited States Agency for International Development (USAID)
dc.contributor.otherUtrecht University
dc.contributor.otherRoyal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ)
dc.date.accessioned2023-09-28T19:35:50Z
dc.date.available2023-09-28T19:35:50Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractTo date, projections of human migration induced by sea-level change (SLC) largely suggest large-scale displacement away from vulnerable coastlines. However, results from our model of Bangladesh suggest counterintuitively that people will continue to migrate toward the vulnerable coastline irrespective of the flooding amplified by future SLC under all emissions scenarios until the end of this century. We developed an empirically calibrated agent-based model of household migration decision-making that captures the multi-faceted push, pull and mooring influences on migration at a household scale. We then exposed similar to 4800 000 simulated migrants to 871 scenarios of projected 21st-century coastal flooding under future emissions pathways. Our model does not predict flooding impacts great enough to drive populations away from coastlines in any of the scenarios. One reason is that while flooding does accelerate a transition from agricultural to non-agricultural income opportunities, livelihood alternatives are most abundant in coastal cities. At the same time, some coastal populations are unable to migrate, as flood losses accumulate and reduce the set of livelihood alternatives (so-called 'trapped' populations). However, even when we increased access to credit, a commonly-proposed policy lever for incentivizing migration in the face of climate risk, we found that the number of immobile agents actually rose. These findings imply that instead of a straightforward relationship between displacement and migration, projections need to consider the multiple constraints on, and preferences for, mobility. Our model demonstrates that decision-makers seeking to affect migration outcomes around SLC would do well to consider individual-level adaptive behaviors and motivations that evolve through time, as well as the potential for unintended behavioral responses.en_US
dc.format.mediumelectronic
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.citationBell, A. R., Wrathall, D. J., Mueller, V., Chen, J., Oppenheimer, M., Hauer, M., Adams, H., Kulp, S., Clark, P. U., Fussell, E., Magliocca, N., Xiao, T., Gilmore, E. A., Abel, K., Call, M., & Slangen, A. B. A. (2021). Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100. In Environmental Research Letters (Vol. 16, Issue 2, p. 024045). IOP Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdc5b
dc.identifier.doi10.1088/1748-9326/abdc5b
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6268-6683
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2812-7719
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1246-2141
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1732-9833
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0971-0207
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9037-6751
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9390-5308
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9708-5914
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8751-5194
dc.identifier.urihttps://ir.ua.edu/handle/123456789/11533
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherIOP
dc.rights.licenseAttribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectmigration
dc.subjectsea-level rise
dc.subjectBangladesh
dc.subjectagent-based model
dc.subjecttrapped populations
dc.subjectEnvironmental Sciences
dc.subjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
dc.titleMigration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100en_US
dc.typeArticle
dc.typetext
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