Abstract:
[1] An evaluation of Pacific and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and
continental U.S. streamflow was performed to identify coupled regions of SST and
continental U.S. streamflow variability. Both SSTs and streamflow displayed temporal
variability when applying the singular value decomposition (SVD) statistical method.
Initially, an extended temporal evaluation was performed using the entire period of record
(i.e., all years from 1951 to 2002). This was followed by an interdecadal-temporal
evaluation for the Pacific (Atlantic) Ocean based on the phase of the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO) (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)). Finally, an extended
temporal evaluation was performed using detrended SST and streamflow data. A lead time
approach was assessed in which the previous year’s spring-summer season Pacific Ocean
(Atlantic Ocean) SSTs were evaluated with the current water year continental U.S.
streamflow. During the cold phase of the PDO, Pacific Ocean SSTs influenced streamflow
regions (southeast, northwest, southwest, and northeast United States) most often
associated with El Nin˜o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while during the warm phase of
the PDO, Pacific Ocean SSTs influenced non-ENSO streamflow regions (Upper Colorado
River basin and middle Atlantic United States). ENSO and the PDO were identified by
the Pacific Ocean SST SVD first temporal expansion series as climatic influences for the
PDO cold phase, PDO warm phase, and the all years analysis. Additionally, the phase of
the AMO resulted in continental U.S. streamflow variability when evaluating Atlantic
Ocean SSTs. During the cold phase of the AMO, Atlantic Ocean SSTs influenced middle
Atlantic and central U.S. streamflow, while during the warm phase of the AMO,
Atlantic Ocean SSTs influenced upper Mississippi River basin, peninsular Florida, and
northwest U.S. streamflow. The AMO signal was identified in the Atlantic Ocean SST
SVD first temporal expansion series. Applying SVD, first temporal expansions series were
developed for Pacific and Atlantic Ocean SSTs and continental U.S. streamflow. The
first temporal expansion series of SSTs and streamflow were strongly correlated, which
could result in improved streamflow predictability.
