Abstract:
[1] Given the importance of Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) snowpack as the
primary driver of streamflow (water supply) for the southwestern United States, the
identification of Pacific Ocean climatic drivers (e.g., sea surface temperature (SST)
variability) may prove valuable in long‐lead‐time forecasting of snowpack in this critical
region. Previous research efforts have identified El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
and Pacific Decadel Oscillation (PDO) as the main drivers for western U.S. snowpack, but
these drivers have limited influence on regional (Utah and Colorado) UCRB snowpack.
The current research applies for the first time the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD)
statistical method to Pacific Ocean SSTs and continental U.S. snowpack to identify
the primary Pacific Ocean climatic driver of UCRB snowpack. The use of SSTs eliminates
any “bias” as to specific climate signals. The second mode of SVD identified a UCRB
snowpack region (Colorado and Utah) and a corresponding Pacific Ocean SST region. A
“non‐ENSO/non‐PDO” Pacific Ocean SST region between 34°N–24°S and 150°E–160°W
was identified as being the primary driver of UCRB snowpack. To confirm the
UCRB snowpack results, data from 13 unimpaired (or naturalized) streamflow gages in
Colorado and Utah were used to evaluate and support the snowpack findings. Finally, a
new and beneficial data set (western U.S. 1 March, 1 April, and 1 May snow water
equivalent) was developed, which may be used in future research efforts.
