Abstract:
The Green River is the largest tributary of the Colorado River. Given that snowpack is the
primary driver of streamflow, information on the long-term regional snowpack (regionalized April 1
Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)) variability would provide useful information for water managers and
planners. Previous research efforts were unable to develop skillful SWE reconstructions using tree-ring
chronologies in the Upper Green River Basin (UGRB) of Wyoming because of limited tree-ring
chronologies in the area. The current research uses Principal Components Analysis to regionalize April
1 snowpack data in the UGRB. Recent research efforts developed six new tree-ring chronologies in and
adjacent to the UGRB. These new chronologies, along with 38 existing chronologies, were correlated
with the regionalized SWE data. Chronologies positively correlated at a 95% confidence level or higher
were retained. Stepwise linear regressions were performed and a reconstruction of UGRB regional
April 1 SWE was achieved (R2 = 0.21). Climate signals (Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)) were introduced to the predictor variables and an additional
regression was performed. Inclusion of the SOI resulted in a statistically skillful reconstruction (R2 =
0.58). Temporal drought periods for SWE and for streamflow were examined for the UGRB and a
direct relationship was observed.
