Browsing by Author "Naher, Shabnam"

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    Forecasting the incidence of dengue in Bangladesh-Application of time series model
    (Wiley, 2022) Naher, Shabnam; Rabbi, Fazle; Hossain, Md Moyazzem; Banik, Rajon; Pervez, Sabbir; Boitchi, Anika Bushra; Jahangirnagar University; University of Alabama Tuscaloosa; Newcastle University - UK; Brandeis University
    Background Dengue is an alarming public health concern in terms of its preventive and curative measures among people in Bangladesh; moreover, its sudden outbreak created a lot of suffering among people in 2018. Considering the greater burden of disease in larger epidemic years and the difficulty in understanding current and future needs, it is highly needed to address early warning systems to control epidemics from the earliest. Objective The study objective was to select the most appropriate model for dengue incidence and using the selected model, the authors forecast the future dengue outbreak in Bangladesh. Methods and Materials This study considered a secondary data set of monthly dengue occurrences over the period of January 2008 to January 2020. Initially, the authors found the suitable model from Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Error, Trend, Seasonal (ETS) and Trigonometric seasonality, Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal (TBATS) models with the help of selected model selection criteria and finally employing the selected model make forecasting of dengue incidences in Bangladesh. Results Among ARIMA, ETS, and TBATS models, the ARIMA model performs better than others. The Box-Jenkin's procedure is applicable here and it is found that the best-selected model to forecast the dengue outbreak in the context of Bangladesh is ARIMA (2,1,2). Conclusion Before establishing a comprehensive plan for future combating strategies, it is vital to understand the future scenario of dengue occurrence. With this in mind, the authors aimed to select an appropriate model that might predict dengue fever outbreaks in Bangladesh. The findings revealed that dengue fever is expected to become more frequent in the future. The authors believe that the study findings will be helpful to take early initiatives to combat future dengue outbreaks.
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    Patients' understanding, management practices, and challenges regarding hypertension: A qualitative study among hypertensive women in a rural Bangladesh
    (Cell Press, 2021) Boitchi, Anika Bushra; Naher, Shabnam; Pervez, Sabbir; Anam, Md. Mujibul; Jahangirnagar University; University of Alabama Tuscaloosa; University of Melbourne
    Background: Hypertension, as one of the main predisposing factors of many non-communicable diseases, is generally underdiagnosed among women with a significant uncontrolled rate. This study explores the understanding, management practice and challenges related to hypertension among hypertensive women in rural Bangladesh. Methods: A qualitative study was conducted among hypertensive rural women at Kumarkhali Upazilla, Kushtia, Bangladesh, using purposive and snowball sampling technique. Data was collected through in-depth interviews among twenty-three hypertensive women until they reached saturation. Data were analyzed thematically. Results: Findings of the study found that a small number of participants perceived the symptoms, risk factors, management and treatment of hypertension based on biomedical understanding. Also, their awareness level and adherence to preventive practices reflected a significant gap between biomedical preventive practices and local practices. A substantial number of participants preferred home management and alternative treatment for hypertension over the medication adherence and hospital treatment. This investigation revealed that poor socio-economic conditions, such as financial insufficiency, and, gender-based negligence impacted women's perception of and practice for hypertension and resulted in risky hypertension management behaviors. Conclusion: Based on the study, formulation of a comprehensive health education program for creating awareness, provisioning of significant interventions services related to hypertensive care are needed. Further intensive research is needed at the community-level to manage this chronic disease.