Department of Information Systems, Statistics & Management Science
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Browsing Department of Information Systems, Statistics & Management Science by Author "Bish, Ebru K."
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Item Benefits of integrated screening and vaccination for infection control(PLOS, 2022) Rabil, Marie Jeanne; Tunc, Sait; Bish, Douglas R.; Bish, Ebru K.; Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University; University of Alabama TuscaloosaImportanceScreening and vaccination are essential in the fight against infectious diseases, but need to be integrated and customized based on community and disease characteristics. ObjectiveTo develop effective screening and vaccination strategies, customized for a college campus, to reduce COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, deaths, and peak hospitalizations. Design, setting, and participantsWe construct a compartmental model of disease spread under vaccination and routine screening, and study the efficacy of four mitigation strategies (routine screening only, vaccination only, vaccination with partial or full routine screening), and a no-intervention strategy. The study setting is a hypothetical college campus of 5,000 students and 455 faculty members during the Fall 2021 academic semester, when the Delta variant was the predominant strain. For sensitivity analysis, we vary the screening frequency, daily vaccination rate, initial vaccine coverage, and screening and vaccination compliance; and consider scenarios that represent low/medium/high transmission and test efficacy. Model parameters come from publicly available or published sources. ResultsWith low initial vaccine coverage (30% in our study), even aggressive vaccination and screening result in a high number of infections: 1,020 to 2,040 (1,530 to 2,480) with routine daily (every other day) screening of the unvaccinated; 280 to 900 with daily screening extended to the newly vaccinated in base- and worst-case scenarios, which respectively consider reproduction numbers of 4.75 and 6.75 for the Delta variant. ConclusionIntegrated vaccination and routine screening can allow for a safe opening of a college when both the vaccine effectiveness and the initial vaccine coverage are sufficiently high. The interventions need to be customized considering the initial vaccine coverage, estimated compliance, screening and vaccination capacity, disease transmission and adverse outcome rates, and the number of infections/peak hospitalizations the college is willing to tolerate.Item Effective screening strategies for safe opening of universities under Omicron and Delta variants of COVID-19(Nature Portfolio, 2022) Rabil, Marie Jeanne; Tunc, Sait; Bish, Douglas R.; Bish, Ebru K.; Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University; University of Alabama TuscaloosaAs new COVID-19 variants emerge, and disease and population characteristics change, screening strategies may also need to change. We develop a decision-making model that can assist a college to determine an optimal screening strategy based on their characteristics and resources, considering COVID-19 infections/hospitalizations/deaths; peak daily hospitalizations; and the tests required. We also use this tool to generate screening guidelines for the safe opening of college campuses. Our compartmental model simulates disease spread on a hypothetical college campus under co-circulating variants with different disease dynamics, considering: (i) the heterogeneity in disease transmission and outcomes for faculty/staff and students based on vaccination status and level of natural immunity; and (ii) variant- and dose-dependent vaccine efficacy. Using the Spring 2022 academic semester as a case study, we study routine screening strategies, and find that screening the faculty/staff less frequently than the students, and/or the boosted and vaccinated less frequently than the unvaccinated, may avert a higher number of infections per test, compared to universal screening of the entire population at a common frequency. We also discuss key policy issues, including the need to revisit the mitigation objective over time, effective strategies that are informed by booster coverage, and if and when screening alone can compensate for low booster coverage.